Sunday, July 3, 2016

Rasmussen Polls are Biased and Inaccurate

Every election cycle has its winners and losers: not just the among the candidates, but also the pollsters.

The polls conducted by the firm Rasmussen Reports, including some commissioned under a subsidiary on behalf of Fox News — badly missed the margin in many states, and also exhibited a considerable bias favoring Republican candidates.

Other polling firms, like SurveyUSA and Quinnipiac University, produced more reliable results in Senate and gubernatorial races.

Among the more prolific polling firms, the most accurate by this measure was TIPP, which conducted a national tracking poll for Investors’ Business Daily. Relative to other national polls, their results seemed to be Democratic-leaning at the time they were published. However, it turned out that most polling firms underestimated Mr. Obama’s performance, so those that had what seemed to be Democratic-leaning results were often closest to the final outcome. (e.g. they were telling the truth)

Conversely, polls that were Republican-leaning relative to the consensus did especially poorly.


A study conducted overnight found liberal-leaning pollster Public Policy Polling was the most accurate predictor of the 2012 presidential election.

PPP projected a 2-point Obama victory and put him at the critical 50 percent mark, 50 to 48 percent over Romney.

As of early Wednesday, President Obama was leading the national popular vote by about 2.7 million votes, taking 50.1 percent support against Mitt Romney at 48.4 – a difference of 1.7 points.

THIS YEAR: it's more of the same.

Rasmussen Reports is doing a "disservice" to the voters who see their hopes dashed against the rocks in the general election.

There is no "conservative majority."


Such false claims give the conservative minority (approximately 21% of the population - or 1 in 5 Americans) hopes based on smoke and mirrors.

In July of 1773, Ben Franklin said it best in Poor Richards:

"He who lives on hope dies farting."